23 Nov 2014 - Fixed SSTs and ENSO | GFS Operational vs. Parallel Comparison (here) | Updated CV (here)
Quick Links: My CV | AO Forecast | ENSO Forecast | MJO Forecast | Weekly CFS 2m Temps | Tropical Hovmöllers | Archived Hovmöllers | ENSO
Nov 242014

The equatorial Pacific is quite warm these days. Figure 1 shows the mean SSTs and SST anomalies from the TAO buoy array. Total (top) and anomalous (bottom) surface winds are superimposed over these maps. The SST structure is interesting with three centers of action along the equator, though these three areas of anomalous warmth don’t appear to be associated with a significant relaxation of the trade winds.

Figure 1. SST and surface wind means/anomalies from the TAO website.

Figure 1. SST and surface wind means/anomalies from the TAO website.

The hovmöller diagrams in Fig. 2 show that SSTs have warmed over the past few months. Interestingly, since August, there hasn’t been much propagation of warm water to the east, rather the water appears to have warmed in-situ.

Figure 2. SST total and anomalies from TAO.

Figure 2. SST total and anomalies from TAO.

Continue reading »

 Posted by at 11:43 am
Nov 242014

Hello everyone,

You’ve probably noticed some aesthetic tweaks to the site over the past few days. I’ve wanted to blog since I began this website, but the weight of my dissertation made it impossible for me to feel okay devoting time to blogging. Since that’s done now, I’m going to try my hand at regular blogging. I chose the name Chaotic Considerations many years ago, but I think it’s still a pretty good name for a weather blog. The domain www.chaoticconsiderations.com now points to this blog (in addition to the old domain).

I will try to have at least two regular posts per week. Every Monday I’ll write up a tropical overview, which I’ll try to publish before noon. Sometime mid-week, probably Wednesday or Thursday I’ll have a regular global overview that looks at large scale climate variability such as the AO/NAO, PNA, etc. This will be combined with medium and long range temperature forecasts for the US.

We’ll see how this all turns out, it’s just an experiment right now. Please leave comments as you read the blog posts… I think that interactions will make the blog much more interesting.


 Posted by at 11:42 am
Jul 112013

I have fixed some odds and ends over the past couple of days. Below is a list of the fixes.

1. Fixed the CFS Temperature Plots. There had been an error downloading the data over the 4th of July and until yesterday I didn’t have time to fix it.

2. Speaking of the CFS Temperature Plots, I have changed the variable displayed. They used to display the intraseasonally filtered forecast and spread. Now, they display the raw forecast and spread. The intraseasonally filtered forecast is a red line overlayed on the graph which looks a lot like a smoothing function. I think this approach gives more useful information.

3. The calculations of the spread anomalies were a little bit off before. I have fixed them. The error occurred in the calculation of the seasonal cycle of standard deviation of spread (try saying that 10 times fast!). The old procedure yielded values that were too small. Since this variable is the denominator of a fraction, the small values made the spread appear more anomalous than it actually was. Things should be much better now, though.

More fixes coming in the next few days… stay tuned…

 Posted by at 10:36 am