The state of ENSO seems very similar to last week’s, with the notable difference that the low-level easterlies have begun to weaken along the Dateline. Check out the comparison below.
The MJO continues to churn away, with the WH index showing phase 6, although I think it’s best to look at the MJO in its full glory, shown in Fig. 3 below. You’ll notice the active convection over the Maritime Continent, low-level anomalous westerlies reaching almost to the Dateline (forecast to continue eastward) and standard suppressed convection over the Indian Ocean. I suspect these low-level winds are contributing to the aforementioned reduction in easterlies near the Dateline, which seems consistent with a developing El Niño.
… and I’ll leave it at that since I have a poster to make and papers to grade.